Market Pulse Africa
Get the Weekly Pulse

Tracking African financial markets, commodity flows, and investment signals — every week.

Macro & Economy

FMDA projects Nigeria’s current account surplus at $8.69bn in Q3 on stronger oil earnings

The Financial Markets Dealers Association projects Nigeria’s current account surplus will widen to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026. The forecast rests on lower import demand and elevated crude oil prices after a $7.54 billion surplus in Q2.

By 2 min read

Alt Text: A landscape-format financial news cover image for Market Pulse Africa. The top background is a detailed, golden-hour photograph of an offshore oil platform in the Gulf of
FMDA projects Nigeria’s current account surplus will rise to $8.69 billion in Q3 2026 on stronger oil earnings and lower imports.

The Financial Markets Dealers Association projects that Nigeria’s current account surplus will widen to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026. The figure compares with a $7.54 billion surplus recorded in the second quarter.

The projection appears in FMDA’s September 2026 Monthly Market Report. It remains an estimate pending the release of official third-quarter balance-of-payments data. For continuous coverage of Nigeria’s external accounts, see MarketPulse Africa.

Drivers of the Projected Surplus

FMDA cites two main factors. Lower import demand is expected to reduce the outflow of foreign exchange. Persistently elevated crude oil prices are expected to support export earnings.

Brent crude averaged $99.95 per barrel in September, a 14.43% rise on the month amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil prices have already contributed to the improvement in Nigeria’s external position earlier in the year.

Recent Current Account Trend

Nigeria’s current account balance has strengthened through 2026. It rose from $1.40 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $4.98 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $7.54 billion in the second quarter.

The second-quarter surplus exceeded FMDA’s earlier projection of $6.12 billion. The association expects the upward trend to continue into the third quarter. Related analysis of Nigeria’s balance of payments is available on the MarketPulse Africa blog.

Trade Balance Support

The trade balance has also improved. It rose from $1.18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $5.45 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $9.22 billion in the second quarter.

Petroleum exports contributed significantly. Crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum products generated $16.96 billion in the second quarter, a 29.76% increase from the previous quarter. Refined petroleum exports rose 66.24% to $3.94 billion. Crude oil export earnings reached $9.39 billion.

Independent reporting on the FMDA projection is available from Nairametrics and THISDAY.

Reserves and External Position

Gross external reserves rose to $54.92 billion at the end of September from $53.81 billion in August. The increase provides an additional buffer and supports confidence in the foreign-exchange market.

Elevated oil prices and the projected current account surplus are expected to reinforce this external buffer. Further context on Nigeria’s reserves and trade data can be found in coverage by Nigeria Housing Market. Continued monitoring of macroeconomic indicators is available through MarketPulse Africa.

Looking Ahead

The $8.69 billion projection for the third quarter would mark a further widening of the surplus if confirmed by official data. The outcome will depend on the actual path of oil prices, import volumes and other balance-of-payments components in the July-to-September period.

Market participants will watch the eventual Central Bank of Nigeria release for confirmation of the scale of the surplus and for any revision to the external outlook.

Prices updated weekly. Not real-time. Not investment advice.

Get the next one by email

The week's commodity moves, currency signals and index performance, every Friday.

**Alt Text:** A landscape-format financial news cover image for Market Pulse Africa. The top background features an aerial, daylight photograph of Abidjan's modern business distric
Macro & Economy

Cote d'Ivoire: Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$), 2025

Foreign direct investment net inflows into Côte d’Ivoire rose to $2.03 billion in 2025, according to UNCTAD data. The figure marks a recovery from the previous year’s lower level and continues a multi-year upward trend in investment.

2 min read

Alt Text: A landscape-format financial news cover image for Market Pulse Africa. The top background is a detailed, daylight photograph of the active Nigerian Exchange (NGX) trading
African Equities

Investors lose N110.16 billion as NGX market cap drops to N162.39 trillion

Equity investors on the Nigerian Exchange lost N110.16 billion on 7 October 2026 as market capitalisation fell to N162.39 trillion. The All-Share Index declined 0.07% to 250,096.75 points, extending a multi-day retreat.

2 min read

**Alt Text:** > Financial news cover image for Market Pulse Africa titled "DMO raises N968.47 billion as 364-day stop rate falls to 15.85% despite strong demand," categorized unde
Macro & Economy

DMO raises N968.47 billion as 364-day stop rate falls to 15.85% despite strong demand

The Debt Management Office allotted N968.47 billion at its latest Treasury bills auction, above the N900 billion on offer. Strong demand for the one-year bill pushed its stop rate down to 15.85% while shorter tenors stayed undersubscribed.

3 min read