Nigeria FX Turnover Falls 22% to $2.62bn as Forward Deals Drop 81%

Dollar trading in Nigeria's official market cooled sharply last week. Total Nigeria FX turnover fell 22.23% to $2.62 billion in the week ended 16 October 2026, from $3.37 billion a week earlier, according to FMDQ data analysed by Nairametrics. Forward contracts led the decline, dropping 81.14%.

The fall comes after an unusually busy week. Turnover in the week to 9 October had jumped 98.58%, so part of last week's drop is a return toward normal levels rather than a collapse in demand.

Nigeria FX turnover: spot and forwards

FMDQ's weekly report tracks foreign exchange deals between authorised banks and their customers. The breakdown for the week ended 16 October:

• Total turnover: $2.62 billion, down $749.15 million from $3.37 billion.
• Average daily turnover: $524.14 million, down from $673.97 million.
• Spot transactions: $2.60 billion, down 19.83% from $3.24 billion. Spot made up 99.05% of all turnover, up from 96.08%.
• Forward transactions: $24.89 million, down 81.14% from $131.95 million. Their share fell to 0.95% from 3.92%.

Spot accounted for about 85.7% of the dollar decline and forwards for about 14.3%. Spot volume was roughly 104 times forward volume, compared with about 24.5 times a week earlier.

Forward contracts swing week to week

Forward volumes have moved widely in recent weeks. Nairametrics' figures show forwards at $64.73 million in the week to 2 October, $131.95 million in the week to 9 October and $24.89 million in the week to 16 October. In the week to 11 September, forwards surged 505.79% and total turnover reached $3.39 billion.

Forwards are mostly used by importers and investors to lock in a future exchange rate. A sharp drop can mean that fewer businesses see a need to hedge, or that large one-off contracts from the previous week were not repeated. The FMDQ data does not say which.

Compared with early October

The latest week still looks strong against the start of the month. Turnover in the week to 2 October was $1.70 billion, though that week had only four trading days against five in the following two weeks. Last week's $2.62 billion was $923.73 million, or 54.43%, above that level. On a daily basis, average turnover was about 23.5% higher than the $424.24 million recorded in the week to 2 October.

What happened to the naira

The naira was broadly stable. Cordros Securities, cited by Nairametrics, said the currency weakened 0.1% week on week to N1,333.09 per dollar in the spot market. Renewed domestic demand outweighed a $430.60 million intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In the forwards market, the naira firmed across all tenors:

• 1-month: N1,352.89/$ (+1bp)
• 3-month: N1,370.80/$ (+8bps)
• 6-month: N1,436.75/$ (+22bps)
• 1-year: N1,531.01/$ (+65bps)

The forward curve still prices in gradual depreciation. The one-year rate is about 15% weaker than spot, a gap that largely reflects the difference between Nigerian and US interest rates.

Outlook: stable, with risks

Cordros expects the naira to stay broadly stable near current levels, supported by strong reserves and a current account surplus. It flags two downside risks: lower domestic yields, which could reduce the appeal of naira assets to foreign portfolio investors, and tighter global financial conditions.

Demand for dollars remains high underneath the weekly swings. A separate Nairametrics analysis of FMDA data showed FX demand reached $18.34 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a 15-year high, driven mainly by services and financial payments.

For traders and businesses, three things are worth watching this week:

1. CBN intervention size: a sale larger than last week's $430.60 million would point to more pressure on the spot rate.
2. Forward volumes: a rebound would suggest hedging demand is returning ahead of year-end import needs.
3. Treasury yields: further declines could test foreign portfolio inflows.

Lower inflation is one reason yields have eased. Read our analysis of Nigeria's inflation falling to its lowest since 2025 for the wider picture.